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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 11th, 2017–Jan 12th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Finally looking like its going to warm up here moving into the weekend.  Fresh windslabs that are skier triggerable are easy to find right now.  Dont get lured into big terrain, conservative choices are a must.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Temps are forecast to slowly warm over the next few days and winds will increase out of the NW into the 26-50km/hr range at ridgetops.  No precip in the near future.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural avalanches on N and E aspects up to sz 2 were observed over the past 24hrs.  These slides were mainly in the alpine, but in a few locations they did run down into skiable terrain.  On one slide in the murray moraines area the slab was only 20-30cm deep but was surprisingly wide (100m)

Snowpack Summary

Variable wind effect in the Alpine, with pockets of fresh wind slab immediately below ridge-crest and in crossloaded features. The Dec 18th interface is buried 40 to 70cm at Treeline and remains a concern for human triggering. The Nov crust is buried up to 100cm deep and is exhibiting facetting both above and below the crust. At lower elevations (2100m and lower in some places!) the snowpack is weak and unsupportive due to prolonged periods of facetting.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent snow and wind have created fresh wind slabs immediately below ridge crests on all aspects.  Reverse loading from the northerly winds is expected to continue.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

These slabs are failing down 30-50cm at the main density change. Human triggering from a thin snowpack area is a definite possibility.
Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopesBe aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

More likely to be triggered from thinner areas and step down to the November crust producing larger avalanches.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3