Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 19th, 2012 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Cornices and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada triley, Avalanche Canada

The wind is expected to be strong from the southwest. If there is more snow than the forecast 10cm available to be transported into windslabs, then the Alpine danger level may be closer to HIGH.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

A Pacific frontal system should move on to the coast this afternoon or evening. The front is forecast to be fast moving and should affect the interior ranges overnight Monday. Forecast snowfall amounts are 5-10 cm overnight combined with strong southerly winds. The wind is expected to shift a bit to the southwest and continue to be strong during the day on Tuesday as another 5-10 cm is expected to accumulate. Unsettled weather is forecast for the interior mountains on Wednesday as the fast moving system should have moved on to the East. On Thursday a weak low pressure system is expected to move up from south of the U.S. border spreading light to moderate precipitation mostly to the southern regions of the interior.

Avalanche Summary

Several operators preformed explosive control on Sunday. Results were up to size 3.5 on various aspects in the alpine, some involving standing timber. One natural size 3.0 avalanche was reported from an east aspect at 2650 metres that failed on the mid-February layer and scoured down to the ground.

Snowpack Summary

Operators report that periods of broken skies on Sunday did not create widespread moist surface snow. It was reported to be warm enough to help settle the recent new snow and storm slab. The combined slab above the mid-february persistent weak layer is now between 150-200 cm. Some operators continue to get easy-moderate sudden planar character shears on the mid-february surface hoar in shallow areas. Snowpack conditions continue to be tricky to evaluate, and are variable throughout the region. Forecast strong wind and new snow may develop new windslabs in the alpine and at treeline.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Forecast strong winds and new snow may develop new windslabs in the alpine and at treeline.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices
Strong winds and new snow may develop new cornice growth that is weak and may fall off naturally.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
The deep nature of the mid-February surface hoar layer makes potential avalanches triggered on this layer large and destructive.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

4 - 8

Valid until: Mar 20th, 2012 9:00AM

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