Forecast precipitation, wind and warming is expected to keep the avalanche danger elevated. Conservative route selection and terrain use is warranted during these conditions.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A series of low pressure systems will sweep across the Interior tonight through tomorrow bringing precipitation and light-moderate winds. A clearing trend with an associated ridge will start to set up later Thursday into Friday. \Wednesday: Snow amounts 5-10 cm by the am with an additional 5-10 cm through the day. Ridgetop winds will be moderate from the West and freezing levels near 1500 m. Thursday: Mostly cloudy with possible sunny breaks. Ridgetop winds light-moderate from the NW. Alpine temperatures near -7 and freezing levels 1500 m. Friday: Sunny with some high cloud. Alpine temperatures high of -2 and freezing levels 1700 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, natural cornice failures were observed up to size 3 from high north facing terrain. Storm slabs and wind slabs up to size 2 continue to be reactive to rider triggering and loose wet activity up to size 1 was reported from south facing terrain. With continued precipitation and wind, natural avalanche activity will likely continue. Fragile cornices are also suspect which are a large enough for deeper slabs to release on the slopes below. If you're traveling below treeline where the avalanche hazard may be lower than it is in the alpine you still need to be diligent with your terrain use and focus on potential overhead hazards by avoiding lingering in run-out zones where large avalanches to come from above. We remain in a low probability, high consequence scenario for persistent slab avalanches failing on deeply buried weak layers.
Check out the recent Forecaster Blogs for more details.Snowpack Summary
Up to 20 cm of recent storm snow has fallen at upper elevations. This now brings 30-70 cm of accumulated snow over the past week which overlies a rain crust below 2000 m or a sun crust on solar aspects at higher elevations. New wind slabs are developing on leeward slopes and behind terrain features and large, fragile cornices exist along ridgelines. At lower elevations, there may be multiple crust layers in the upper snowpack which are now generally well bonded. At higher elevations, the February weak layers are down 120-150 cm and woke up during last week's storm with many avalanches stepping down to them. The deep mid-December facet layer and November rain crust both still linger near the bottom of the snowpack and a few avalanches and cornice falls have also stepped down to these layers last week resulting in some very large full depth avalanches.
swerner,
Avalanche Canada
