Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

A strong westerly flow is setting up for Tuesday with average seasonal temps. The big story is the wind. Winds are forecasted to be out of the W in excess of 100 km/h at ridgetop all day Tuesday. Precipitation will begin to fall Tuesday afternoon continuing into the night, there should be 15 - 20 cm of new snow out of this pulse by Wednesday morning. A second system of lesser intensity moves through the area Wednesday/Thursday producing around 10 cm of snow. Thursday afternoon and Friday look to be generally dry.

Explosive work in the region Sunday produced avalanches to size 3. The bulk of this activity was on slopes facing E and N. Observers noted a widespread cycle in the storm snow affecting both the alpine & treeline elevation bands over the weekend on all aspects.

The Purcell's are currently quite variable in terms of snowpack. 20 - 40 cm of new snow fell out of the weekend storm & this snow sits on the previous snow surface which consisted of loose dry snow in sheltered areas and old wind slab in exposed areas. Irregular winds out of the SE during the storm created slabs in unusual locations. The mid-December surface hoar/facet persistent weakness, now down around 55cm on the eastern side of the range and as deep as 190cm on the western side, is still causing operators concern, especially in shallow snowpack areas. Recent snowpack tests show moderate to hard, sudden planar results on this layer. The consequences of a failure on this layer would be large. Facets and depth hoar exist at the base of the snowpack. Cornices are large and weak in some areas.