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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 8th, 2021–Feb 9th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Be suspect of wind loaded terrain. And bring your extra puffy - it's cold.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT - Cold and cloudy with isolated flurries, trace to 5 cm / moderate northeast wind / alpine low temperature near -30

TUESDAY - Mostly sunny / moderate southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -24

WEDNESDAY - Sunny / moderate increasing to strong east wind / alpine high temperature near -24

THURSDAY - Sunny / strong east wind / alpine high temperature near -24

Avalanche Summary

Evidence of recent natural wind slab avalanches (likely occurring Saturday) were observed on Sunday as discussed in this MIN report. Small loose dry avalanches were also reported, in some cases likely triggered by the sun.

As the recent low-density storm snow becomes more consolidated and forms a slab, the likelihood of avalanches may increase.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temperatures are encouraging surface faceting and variable winds are impacting loose snow. The late January interface is down 20-30 cm, consisting of isolated surface hoar in sheltered locations, and previous wind effect in exposed areas. On solar aspects, a buried sun crust can be found below 1000 m. 

The lower snowpack has two decomposing crust layers. The upper crust is 70-140 cm deep and continues to show occasional hard, sudden results in snow pits. The deeper crust at the bottom of the snowpack is more prevalent in shallow snowpack ranges. These deep persistent layers seem to be dormant under the current conditions, but shallow rocky slopes should still be carefully assessed and approached with caution. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Watch your sluff: it may run faster and further than you expect.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Variable wind has formed reactive slabs on multiple aspects, and outflow winds continue to impact loose snow and reverse load features. Avalanches will be most likely in wind loaded areas and where the snow feels stiff or punchy. Be mindful of loose-snow or sluff in steeper features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2