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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2021–Jan 14th, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Mother Nature planted a warm, wet smooch on Rogers Pass last night.

30cm of new snow, mild temps, and strong/extreme SW winds have formed touchy storm slabs that are currently driving a natural avalanche cycle.

Weather Forecast

End of the storm this am, then a ridge will bring clearing skies and cooler temps.

Today: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, FZL 1200m dropping during day, mod to extreme W winds at ridge-top

Tonight: Cloudy with clear periods, Alp low -14*C, mod/strong W winds

Thurs: Sunny periods, Alp high -3*C, mod SW winds

Fri: flurries, 5cm, Alp high -4*C, mod W winds

Snowpack Summary

A 35-40cm storm slab is covering a thin crust from sun and/or rime in exposed terrain, as well as surface hoar up to 10mm in the sheltered areas at treeline and below. The spotty Dec 26 surface hoar is down 70-90cm. The Dec 7th surface hoar/suncrust/facet layer is down 1.5+m. Crusts with facets persist at the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle is underway in Rogers Pass, with large avalanches to sz 3.5 running into the valleys. Artillery control has also produced avalanches to sz 3.5 along the highway corridor.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Snowfall, wind and warm temps have formed storm slabs overnight. These heavy slabs are failing on the underlying layers and there is an active avalanche cycle underway.

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3.5

Loose Wet

Warm temps at tree-line and below accompanied the overnight dump. The new snow has a high moisture content and point releases from tree-bombs or failing snow mushrooms may gather significant mass.

  • Watch for moist surface snow over crust on steeper solar aspects.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5