Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2015–Feb 15th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

During recent storms freezing levels have varied significantly throughout the region. Conditions are highly variable. Pay close attention to conditions that change with elevation, aspect and geographic location.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will develop and bring mainly clear skies for the forecast period. Sunday: Light snowfall in the morning and then clearing throughout the day / Moderate to strong northwest winds / Freezing level at about 1200m    Monday: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at 1200m    Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 2500m

Avalanche Summary

Wet loose and wet slab avalanche activity to size 2.5 was observed in the south of the region in the last few days. If warm temperatures persist, there is ongoing potential for this type of activity to continue.

Snowpack Summary

In the Terrace area, warming and subsequent refreezing has created a hard melt-freeze crust which extends up to about 1800m. This melt-freeze crust is adding considerable strength to the snowpack, although warming throughout the day will weaken this crust allowing for surface avalanches to fail more easily. About 20 or 30cm below the surface you may find weak surface hoar which was buried on February 10th. It is unclear if recent warming has destroyed this potentially weak layer. I'd dig down and test for this layer, especially at upper elevations where colder temperatures may have allowed for this weakness to persist. In general, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well-settled. Further north in the region, the freezing level is reported to have hovered around 1300m during recent storms. In these areas, wind and storm slabs are a concern and deeper persistent weaknesses are more likely to exist.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent storm accumulations may still be sensitive to human triggering, particularly in the north of the region in higher, wind-exposed terrain. Storm slabs may take extra time to strengthen due to underlying surface hoar.
The new snow may require several days to settle and stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

Forecast warming and sunny breaks will increase the likelihood of loose wet and wet slab avalanches. Wet avalanches can be pushy and entrain mass quickly.
Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3