Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Expect continued unsettled conditions for the forecast period. Up to 7cm of new snow may fall on Tuesday, with much lighter accumulations expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime freezing levels should hover around 1100m with ridgetop winds remaining mostly moderate from the southwest.

Recent observations have been extremely limited, although I suspect there was a decent round of storm slab activity at higher elevations in response to wet, warm and windy weather over the past few days. On Friday, a size 2.5 avalanche was triggered on a north aspect in the alpine. The avalanche appeared to be triggered from relatively low angle terrain and ran in a layer of surface hoar buried around 40 cm below the surface. There were several reports of other deliberately triggered avalanches (ski cuts and explosive triggered avalanches) that could be easily triggered up to size 2. These ran on NW to NE aspects between 1400 and 2100 m. On Thursday, at least four natural avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported from north aspect slopes.

30-50 cm of recent heavy storm snow and, in windy areas, thick wind slabs are poorly bonded to crusts and other slippery previous snow surfaces. In particular, a layer of surface hoar that was buried around 25 March and is now buried around 40-60 cm below the surface. This layer has been responsible for recent avalanche activity and whumpfs have been reported on northerly aspects in the alpine and at treeline. Deeper in the snowpack, a hard crust with weak facets, buried early March, may be found over a metre down, particularly in northern parts of the region. Although reports suggest this deeper persistent weakness has gained strength, I'd still be wary of the possibility of isolated large avalanches on steep, unsupported slopes, especially if temperatures increase, or if solar radiation is strong. On sun-exposed slopes and at lower elevations, the snowpack is likely in a spring melt-freeze cycle. The mid-pack is generally well-settled and strong. At the base of the snowpack, weak facets may be found, particularly on shallow alpine slopes in the north of the region.