Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 22nd, 2013 8:32AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Sunday night and Monday morning: Moderate snowfall with heavy amounts possible closer to the Coquihalla area, easing by mid-day on Monday / Moderate southwest winds with extreme gusts / Freezing level at 1300mTuesday: Mostly clear skies / Light winds / 700mWednesday: Increased cloud / Light winds / Freezing level at 1000m

Avalanche Summary

Several remotely triggered size 1-1.5 soft slab avalanches were observed in the North of the region on Friday. They occurred on a north/northeast aspect at treeline. The December 12th surface hoar layer was the culprit in these events.Ongoing avalanche activity is expected with snow and wind forecast for Sunday night.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths vary greatly across the region with 130cm reported at treeline in the Northern Cascades but only 50 cm along the Duffy. In general, the snowpack across the region is significantly thinner than average for this time of year. Terrain below treeline is still mostly below threshold for avalanche activity.15-20 cm recent snowfall now sits on a generally well consolidated snowpack. Previous weak interfaces within the snowpack appear generally well bonded and have been unreactive to recent snowpack tests. The exception to this seems to be in the north of the region where very touchy surface hoar buried on December 12th sits below about 30cm of recent snowfall. This will be a weakness to watch as the overlying slab develops. Early season riding hazards such as rocks, stumps and logs are lurking below the surface at treeline elevations and below.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
New snow and wind forecast for Sunday night will create new and potentially reactive storm slabs. Watch for increased triggering in wind-affected terrain.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Reports from the Duffey area indicate a touchy layer of buried surface hoar now sits under about 30cm of snow. This is likely the layer to watch as the overlying slab develops, especially with forecast snowfall.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 23rd, 2013 2:00PM

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