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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 30th, 2013–Mar 31st, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Danger could INCREASE TO CONSIDERABLE with intense radiation on south and west aspects, especially at treeline and below. Be aware of how the warm weather is changing the snowpack.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Generally clear skies are expected on Sunday and Monday with increasing cloud on Tuesday. Winds will be mostly light from the southwest. Freezing levels may reach 3200m on Sunday, 2500m on Monday and then 2100m on Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary

Loose wet avalanches up to 2.0 have been reported on solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures have created melt freeze conditions below 2000m on all aspects and to ridgecrest on south and west facing terrain.  Isothermal conditions as deep as 100cm have been reported on South aspects at lower elevations. On high north-facing slopes surfaces are well settled and surface hoar development continues in some areas.Cornices are huge!A layer of surface hoar (buried on March 11; now down about 60 cm) is still being observed in some locations. Triggering this layer has become unlikely, and would most likely require a large trigger or from a thin snowpack zone. Mid and lower snowpack layers are well bonded.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Direct sun and/or daytime warming may cause loose wet avalanches, particularly on steep south and west facing terrain. Wet slabs may also be possible at low elevations where the ground cover is smooth.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Cornices

Cornices are large and become more susceptible to failure due to large temperature fluctuations. A cornice fall could possibly trigger a slab on slopes below.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6