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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2015–Mar 13th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

New snow, strong winds, and rising temperatures are a perfect recipe for avalanches.  Careful route selection will be critical for safe back country travel

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

The South Coast Inland should see some clearing on Friday with freezing levels going up to 2700m. On Saturday expect 10mm of moisture with freezing levels at around 1700m followed by another 5 to 10mm on Sunday and Monday next week with freezing levels dropping to more normal seasonal values.

Avalanche Summary

A few wet snow avalanches have been reported occurring on solar aspects. Cloudy skies may keep the surface from overnight freezing and  rising teemperatures may increase the likelihood of loose wet avalanches and cornice failures.

Snowpack Summary

The recent precipitation is falling on a variety of old snow surfaces that exist throughout the region. Melt-freeze conditions can be found on solar aspects in the alpine, and on all aspects at lower elevations. On high north-facing terrain, you may find stubborn old wind slabs and some surface facets from cold, clear nights, buried around March 5th. The snowpack is generally strong and well settled. Cornices , however, may become weak with daytime warming. New storm snow will most likely be quite wet and accompanied by strong SW winds.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

New snow will increase the load on already mature cornices, rising temperatures will increase the hazard.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Stay well back from cornices.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Wind Slabs

New snow with strong winds will build new wind slabs

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4