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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2012–Jan 2nd, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertainfor the entire period

Weather Forecast

Monday: 5-7cm of snow arriving late in the day / moderate to strong southwest winds / freezing level at 1400mTuesday: Light to moderate snowfall throughout the day / strong southwest winds / freezing level at 1400mWednesday: moderate to heavy snowfall / strong south winds / freezing level at 1400m

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the past 24 hours.

Snowpack Summary

The past week's storm snow totals are now in the 60-90cm range. Strong southerly winds shifted snow into wind slabs on lee slopes in the alpine and at treeline. The past weekend saw a break in the weather and the upper snowpack may have strengthened, but only marginally. Expect further wind and storm slab development throughout the forecast period.Below the recent storm snow, three weaknesses exist in the mid snowpack. A surface hoar layer formed in early December overlies facets and is down about 60cm. It is giving easy, sudden collapse results in snowpack tests.A second surface hoar layer buried around Christmas is also giving easy, sudden planar results.A crust/facet combo which exists to around treeline, buried on December 17th, adds to the complexity of the snowpack and has shown the potential to propagate widely.Persistent weaknesses seem to be more of a concern around the Duffey Lake area than in the Cascades (Coquihalla and Allison Pass).The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Be alert for ongoing wind slab development in lee and cross-loaded terrain. Be aware of cornice development at ridgecrests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Buried weaknesses in the mid to upper snowpack have created an avalanche problem which may be triggered by people or by additional wind-loading. There is potential for surprisingly large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5