Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 15 cm, strong westerly winds, treeline temperature -4 C, freezing level below valley bottom.SATURDAY: Cloudy with early-morning snowfall then clearing to mostly sunny, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, light northwesterly winds, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level near 600 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with early-morning snowfall, accumulation 15-25 cm, strong westerly winds, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level near 500 m.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, several natural wind slab avalanches were reported from all aspects up to size 2. Although a couple of them were recent, the bulk of them likely released on the weekend. Expect natural and human-triggered avalanche activity to increase with the incoming storms.

New storm snow will fall on highly variable and wind-affected surfaces. In exposed terrain, strong north winds have scoured north facing slopes and produced wind slabs on southern slopes. In sheltered terrain, new snow will fall on last weekends storm snow. The new snow may not bond well to these surfaces and could be reactive to both natural and human triggers.A hard rain crust that extends into alpine terrain is buried about 40 to 70 cm. Reports suggest the snow has a poor bond to the crust with test results showing sudden planar characteristics, a Rutschblock 2 (the whole block failing after standing on it), and it remains reactive to human triggers. Monitor the bond of the snow to this crust closely. There are no substantial layers of concern below the crust.Also make note of cornices at ridgeline. Variable winds in the past month have produced cornices on all aspects, which will become touchier as they grow in size, temperatures rise, and the sun packs more of a punch. Stand well back of them!