Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 2nd, 2018–Feb 3rd, 2018

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

More avalanche activity and forecasted snow mean the hazard will rise- possibly quickly and dramatically. Watch conditions carefully and don't venture into big terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A bit of a conflicting forecast right now (we look at 3 everyday). Winds will be anywhere from 45-100km/hr. Given today's experience we'd lean more towards the 70km/hr range at 2500m. Flurries will only bring a few more centimeters tonight and another 6-20 tomorrow. Alpine temperatures will be around -10 for the high.

Avalanche Summary

Several new slabs were seen in the northern reaches of our region today. It's hard to guess the age as they were blown in and reloaded quickly. They were all in the alpine and about sz2. While officially out of our forecast region, but still relevant, Cascade Falls in Banff was reported to have released today. Thinner areas appear to be touchier at the moment.

Snowpack Summary

Not a lot of snow last night. Some stations had a cm or 2, but nothing significant. What was interesting today was seeing, and feeling the wind arrive. Especially in the northern portion of the region. There are definitely new wind slabs in the alpine & treeline areas on N-S aspects. The first question to ask now is: How will the load shift and will this change initiate a natural cycle? We suspect it will in the alpine, but treeline will likely remain in the human triggering range only.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are extensive in the alpine down to tree line. There are failures within the slabs as well that are reactive.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

variable test results are keeping this layer on the radar. It is worth digging and testing as you approach treeline. Especially if we get more snow than expected.

Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3