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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 8th, 2018–Jan 9th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

More snow than forecasted!!With new snow and moderate temps, the snowpack is reaching a tipping point. Expect buried surface hoar layers to become reactive. A conservative terrain choice is appropriate for the day.

Weather Forecast

Expect cloudy skies with periods of moderate snow flurries with accumulations up to 5cm over the day. The alpine high will be -5 with freezing levels reaching 1400m. Winds will be from the southwest in the 20km/hr range. Depending on which forecast you drink your morning coffee with, we are expected to receive 15-30cm of snow by Tuesday morning.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of storm snow now buries the Jan 4 surface hoar and a thin crust on solar aspects. The Dec 27 surface hoar is down ~50cm and the Dec 15 surface hoar is down ~70cm and still producing whumphing, cracking and small avalanches on unsupported terrain features at tree line and below.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous sz 1.5-2.5 avalanches observed in the past two days along the highway corridor from steep terrain. Test results show that the Jan 4 and Dec 27 surface hoar layers are becoming reactive, producing moderate sudden planar fractures in some profiles.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

30cm of snow over the past 48hrs is settling into a soft slab with warm winters temps (-1 to -5). The Jan 4 surface hoar is down ~35cm and found to be up to 15mm in size. If triggered, small avalanches could initiate deeper layers.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious on convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 15 and Dec 27 surface hoar layers are widespread around tree line and buried ~80cm and ~50cm respectively. Warmer temps have promoted settlement of the upper snow pack, these layers may become reactive with the recent storm snow.
Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking. Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3