Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 31st, 2016–Apr 1st, 2016

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Above zero overnight alpine temps have prevented a good overnight recovery. Continued daily warming & solar will add even more stress to the snowpack. Be very cautious on slopes where the snow is becoming moist and steer clear of cornices!

Weather Forecast

A strong ridge of high pressure remains in place today, which brings strong sun and warm temps. Today will be a mix of sun and cloud, with no precipitation, light wind & an Alpine high of +2'C & freezing levels to 2500m.Â Above 0 temps overnight will have prevented any refreeze of the snowpack. High pressure remains in place until the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Temps remained well above 0 overnight in the Alpine leaving the surface moist & keeping it from its nightly refreeze. Any surface crust will be thin and will break down quickly. Snow is still dry on true North facing slopes in the high Alpine & wind slabs can be found on lee features. Within the snowpack there are multiple crusts in the top meter.

Avalanche Summary

Solar and warm temperatures have been triggering loose wet avalanches, as well as moist slab avalanches up to size 3 yesterday. Recent activity has been primarily from sun exposed slopes and from cornices. Glide crack releases have been releasing as large destructive wet avalanches.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Temps were above zero overnight at all of our weather stations & got up to +8 at 1900m! Without an overnight freeze the snowpack will lose its strength & very destructive avalanches are possible. Travel early & be cautious as the snow becomes moist

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Solar and warm temps will weaken cornices, which are very large on many ridges. Cornice failures are likely triggers for deeply buried weak layers. There has been a number of near misses recently where people have gotten too close to cornice edges.

Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Intense solar and warm temps could wake up deeply buried weak layers. Recent tests on these crusts indicate that they will likely take a heavy trigger like a cornice fall or another avalanche, but if triggered very large avalanches are possible.

Choose well supported terrain without convexities.Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4