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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 28th, 2020–Jan 29th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Avalanche danger will increase through the day Wednesday as 35-45 cm of new snow and strong winds form reactive storm slabs at upper elevations.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Flurries bringing a trace of new snow. Light south winds. Freezing level 1300 m.

Wednesday: 35-45 cm of new snow with rain below 900 m. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level 1200 m.

Thursday: 10-15 cm of new snow. Southwest winds building to strong. Freezing level 1900 m.

Friday: Broken cloud with flurries starting in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level 2500 m. Storm totals for Friday night/Saturday are looking to be in the range of of 50-80 mm of rain. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations since Saturday when small pockets of loose wet snow (less than size 1) were reactive to skier traffic. 

Snowpack Summary

35-45 cm of new snow will fall over the day above 1000 m. Dry snow at upper elevations will be redistributed by strong southwest wind. A rain crust up to 1400 m sits 30-60 cm below the surface, elevation dependent. The snowpack is strong and settled from earlier rain, and now 200-300 cm deep around the peaks of the north shore mountains. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will form above 1000 m where snowfall accumulates, 35-45 cm expected through the day. Dry snow at upper elevations will be redistributed by strong southwest wind, forming deep wind-loaded pockets in lee features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches are possible in steep terrain due to rain and warm temperatures at lower elevations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2