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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 16th, 2022–Feb 17th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

New snow and strong winds on Wednesday night are expected to form fresh wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above. Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain. 

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Snow; 5-10 cm (rain below ~700 m) / Extreme, west wind / Low of -2 / Freezing level rising to 1100 m.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 0-3 cm, and another 5-10 cm overnight / Strong, west wind / High of 1 / Freezing level 1200 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm / Strong, southwest wind / High of 2 / Freezing level 1200 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 0-3 cm / Light, west wind / High of -2 / Freezing level 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Several skier triggered size 1 wind slabs were reported on Tuesday. The size and distribution of the wind slabs are expected to increase with the incoming snow Wednesday night.

Snowpack Summary

5-10 cm of forecast snow and strong west winds on Wednesday night are expected to form fresh wind slabs sitting on a thick rain crust. 

The 10-20 cm thick rain crust makes human triggering of avalanches on weak layers deeper in the snowpack very unlikely.

However, cornices overhead are a primary concern during sunny, warm, or windy conditions. Cornice failures can trigger very large persistent slab avalanches that would otherwise be difficult to human trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow and strong winds on Wednesday night are expected to form fresh wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above.

Cornices overhead are a primary concern during sunny, warm, or windy conditions. Cornice failures may trigger large persistent slab avalanches that would otherwise be difficult to trigger.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5