Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Chic-Chocs.
The effects of the expected rain on the snowpack are difficult to predict, but one thing is certain: natural avalanches are possible.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
Early season, observations are limited. Thanks for sharing your observation through the Mountain Information Network if you head out.
No new avalanches have been observed or reported. Please share your observations at [email protected] or via the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
The heavy rain, expected to begin on Sunday night, will significantly alter the snowpack. In terms of structure, on Sunday, the alpine and exposed reliefs showed a variety of wind-affected surfaces (hard slabs, sastrugis, crust or pressed snow). Start zones, depressions and cross loaded features showed heavier accumulations.
In general, the December 11 crust is buried under 10 to 40 cm of snow, depending on location, with a facetted grain layer above it, at all altitudes. In the alpine, this interface also showed signs of instability where the snowpack was shallower.
Weather Summary
Synopsis: A major low-pressure system will pass west of the Gaspé Peninsula, leaving several millimetres of rain.
Sunday evening and night: Cloudy. Rain. Southwest winds from 80 to 100 km/h. Temperatures rising above 0C. Freezing level 2 000m.
Monday: Cloudy. Rain. South winds around 90 km/h gusting to 115 km/h. Max. 6C. Freezing level 2,500m.
Tuesday: Cloudy. Rain. South winds from 55 to 65 km/h. Min. 2C.
Wednesday: Sunny. Trace of snow in pm. West winds from 35 to 45 km/h. Max -10C.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
- If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Wet Slabs
The large amounts of rain expected will add further weight, and could weaken the facet grain layer above the December 11 crust, or lubricate the bed surface that this crust represents. As this layer is buried under 10 to 40 cm of snow, the potential size of an event is difficult to predict. Typical wind loaded zones may surprise.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5