Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Island.
6:30 AM Update: Storm slabs may rapidly form over the course of the day. Travel conservatively and assess the bond of the new snow.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Friday and Saturday, numerous, small, skier triggered wet loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain around treeline.
Snowpack Summary
New storm slabs will build over the day. Most rideable terrain was soaked by rain during the recent storm. The new snow may overly a crust between 1700 and 1000 m. Where dry snow remains, at very high elevations, there may be deep, reactive windslabs leftover from the strong to extreme south winds during the storm. In transitional elevations between dry and wet/freezing snow, moderate southeast winds Sunday morning may have formed thin, reactive windslabs over the new crust.
Snowpack depths at treeline are around 100 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cutbanks, and alpine features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.
Weather Summary
Sunday Night
Cloudy. 0-10 cm of snow expected. Snow/rain line around 1000 m. Moderate southeast wind trending to light by the morning.
Monday
Cloudy, 20 to 30 cm of snow. Light southwest wind, increasing to moderate through the day. Snow/rain line around 1000 m.
Tuesday
Possible clear periods overnight. Mostly cloudy through the day. 3 cm of snow expected. Moderate rain in the southwest of the region. Light south alpine winds becoming strong through the day. Freezing around 900m.
Wednesday
Cloudy morning, possible sunny afternoon. 0-10 cm of snow expected overnight, heavy rain in the southwest of the region. Strong south alpine winds becoming moderate northwest through the day.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
- Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
- Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs are likely building today. Start on small slopes and see how well the new snow is bonding to the old surface before venturing into bigger or more committing terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
A high freezing level brought heavy rain, which soaked and weakened the surface snow. As freezing levels drop, this wet snow will likely freeze into a crust and become less likely to avalanche. Watch for signs of instability like snowballing, pinwheeling, and deep slush on the surface.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2