Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 30th, 2015 8:16AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

South Columbia.

Riding conditions are excellent right now but isolated problems still exist. Soft wind slabs may still be lingering around ridge crests in the alpine. Sluffing can be expected on steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

High pressure is the dominant feature for the foreseeable future. In the alpine, sunny conditions are expected for the next few days but most of the valleys will likely to be under valley fog. On Thursday, treeline temperatures will be around -5C with colder temperatures in the valleys. Alpine winds may be moderate from NE in the morning but should ease during the day. On Friday, a layer of above freezing air is expected to invade the alpine. By Saturday, temperatures could be a few degrees above zero from around 2000m to 3000m elevation. On both Friday and Saturday, alpine winds should be light and above the valley fog the conditions should be clear and sunny.

Avalanche Summary

Several small loose dry avalanches, small soft slab avalanches, and cornice releases have been reported over the last couple of days. Progressive warming in the alpine with ongoing sunny conditions should result in ongoing loose natural avalanches from south-facing slopes and by the weekend may create slab properties within the recent storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

20-40cm of low density snow overlies a generally strong snowpack. Some operators report surface hoar buried down about 10-15 cm. You may encounter wind slabs which are sensitive to the weight of a person near ridge tops. Recent storm snow may sluff in steep terrain, especially with a touch of sun. One operator near Kamloops is reporting a hard slab sitting on a layer of surface hoar buried down 30-50 cm. This appears to be an outlier, but I would take extra time to investigate the snowpack if you are in the far west of the region. The lower snowpack is reportedly well settled. The early December weak layer (about 80-150 cm down) is spotty in distribution, but where it does exist still gives hard, sudden results, meaning it is unlikely to be triggered, but could produce a very large avalanche.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs may still be lurking behind ridges and ribs. Winds have recently changed directions so the problem could exist on either side of a ridge.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

As the temperatures in the alpine continue to rise, the sun will pack more punch. Loose avalanche activity is expected to continue from steep, rocky, sun-exposed slopes. The volume of dry snow could push you around.

Minimize exposure to steep sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong. >Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 31st, 2015 2:00PM