Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Ridging will bring mostly clear conditions to the region on Sunday with light westerly winds and freezing levels at about 1700m. Light precipitation will commence late Monday intensifying slightly overnight and into Tuesday. Winds will be moderate/westerly, switching light/northwesterly by Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to increase to 1900m on Monday dropping back to 1700m by Tuesday. Confidence: Good for Sunday, fair for Monday/Tuesday.

Numerous wet slab and wet loose snow avalanches to size 2.5 were reported in the region on Friday. They failed on various aspects at lower elevations, and occurred in response to daytime warming.I suspect cooling on Saturday will assist in limiting avalanche activity at higher elevations; however, it's all about solar radiation and freezing levels at this time. If it warms-up and/or if solar radiation intensifies, avalanche activity will increase.

Very warm temperatures dominated the region throughout the week and all but the highest, north-facing slopes saw moist to wet surface conditions. Since Thursday morning, slightly cooler temperatures have allowed light amounts of new snow to fall above about 2000m while rain continued to penetrate and weaken the snowpack at lower elevations. Up to 80cm below the surface, you might find remnants of facetted crystals sitting on a crust in the alpine and at treeline. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 140-220 cm, although avalanches releasing on this layer represent a very low probability-high consequence scenario. Cornices in the region are very large. With spring temperatures, these are more likely to become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release deep layers on slopes below.