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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2014–Feb 15th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Columbia.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A series of waves of Pacific moisture continue to bring precipitation into the interior of BC. Forecast models vary on the timing and intensity of the incoming storms, some locations may see large amounts of precipitation. Southern parts of the forecast area may see warmer temperatures than the north.Friday night:  Freezing level around 700m;  A wave of Pacific moisture will bring more snow to the region, light to locally moderate amounts of precipitation with continuing strong south west winds at ridge top.Saturday: Freezing level around 1000m;    A bit of a break in the weather early on Saturday.  Precipitation beginning in the early afternoon and into Sunday, some areas may receive up to 10 cm. Light winds from the south east at ridge top.Sunday:  Freezing level around 800m;  More Pacific moisture with 10 to 20cm  in the precipitation forecast. Winds are forecast to be strong at ridge tops.Monday: Freezing level around 1000m;  Continued precipitation from Sundays storm and another 5 to 10 cm.  Wind calm down a bit, and forecast to be moderate to strong at ridge tops

Avalanche Summary

Reports of a widespread avalanche cycle throughout the forecast area with natural large avalanches up to size 3 and skier controlled and remote avalanches up to size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds at ridge tops have redistributed the new snow and formed wind slabs on lee slopes. The new snow ( up to 80cm in some areas ) has fallen on a variety of weak surfaces that include surface hoar (widespread in most sheltered and shaded areas at all elevations), and facetted wind slabs from the recent cold clear arctic conditions,  These weak layers will be problematic for the near future.  Shallow snowpack areas may have a large layer of weak facetted snow at the base of the snowpack. The depth of this layer makes triggering an avalanche unlikely but the consequences could be quite serious.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Large amounts of new snow settling into a storm slab over the weak Feb.10th surface hoar/facet/slab interface. Careful route finding is needed for safe riding/skiing in the backcountry.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Avoid steep, open glades in the forest.>Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5