Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 14th, 2016 7:52AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Forecast snowfall amounts for Sunday night are highly variable across the region. Pay close attention to how much snow falls in your area, and be prepared to stick to conservative terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: 15-30cm of new snow with highest accumulations falling in the southwest of the region / Strong southwest ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 1500mMONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate southwest ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 1500mTUESDAY: 10-20cm of new snow falling mostly in the early morning - easing by mid day / Strong southwest ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 1400mWEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries / Light southwest ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 1200m

Avalanche Summary

At the time of publishing on Sunday, we had a few new reports of natural wind slab avalanches up to size 2.5 in steep alpine terrain. Some of these occurrences are thought to have been cornice-triggered. At treeline where there was considerably less wind, naturally triggered wind slabs were observed in the size 1-1.5 range. Increasing southwest winds and moderate amounts of new snow on Sunday night will spark a new round of wind slab activity in higher elevation lee terrain. Periods of sun on Monday may also promote loose wet avalanche activity on steep sun-exposed slopes, especially in spots where new snow is exposed to solar radiation for the first time.

Snowpack Summary

On Sunday night, moderate amounts of new snow are expected to fall, and strong southwest winds are expected to form deep new wind slabs in lee features at treeline and in the alpine. The new snow will overlie wind slabs and settling storm snow which fell throughout the weekend. About 40-70 cm below the surface, you'll likely find a melt freeze crust which exists in most places except for in high elevation shaded terrain. Although there seems to be a reasonable bond between the crust and the overlying snow, it could be a potential failure plane, especially if temperatures are warm or solar radiation is strong. Surface hoar buried in early January now lies up to 200cm below the surface, and has become unlikely to trigger.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Deep wind slabs are expected to form on Sunday night in response to new snow and wind. Watch for triggering in the lee of ridgecrests at treeline and in the alpine.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet
Recent storm accumulations may react as a loose wet avalanche in steep, sun-exposed terrain. Be extra cautious if the sun makes an appearance on Monday
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Be cautious of wet sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Feb 15th, 2016 2:00PM