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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2018–Feb 1st, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Non persistent weak layers in the recent storm snow need time to settle out. Deeper persistent weak layers need to be kept in mind in your terrain choices.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods, convective flurries, alpine highs of -12C and light to low end of moderate westerly wind. Thursday we should see slowly warming temperatures, light precipitation and moderate SW wind at ridge top. Friday the next Pacific storm moves in with freezing level up to 1500m, moderate SW winds and ~20cm of snow.

Snowpack Summary

70cm of storm snow in the last 5 days, 15cm in the last 24hrs at 1900m, accompanied by moderate S'ly winds. Expect to find wind slab along ridge lines and lee features. Jan 16 surface hoar is down ~70cm, Jan 4 down ~90cm and Dec 15 down ~1m+ making for a complex sandwich of weak layers.

Avalanche Summary

The natural avalanche cycle has ended with only a couple avalanches east of the pass in the highway corridor occurring yesterday morning. The recent cycle had slides running full path to the bottom of runnout.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent heavy snowfall has created a reactive storm slab. Wind transport has added to the load on lee slopes at and above treeline. If triggered, the slab could step down to deeper persistent weak layers.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers present a lower likelihood / high consequence scenario with the Jan 16th, 4th &Dec 15th surface hoar layers buried deep. Triggered storm slabs may overload these layers resulting in large avalanches.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5