Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - North East.
Recent or new wind and storm slab is expected on Thursday. Continue to avoid steeper slopes in areas where you still find the 12/17 PWL in snow pits or especially if you experience direct observations of this layer such as whumpfing or shooting cracks.
Detailed Forecast
West southwest flow aloft will carry the next front across the Northwest on Thursday afternoon and night. Winds should increase in most areas on Thursday but significant new snow during the daylight hours is expected mainly in the Olympics and northwest Cascades. A warming trend should also be seen with temperature inversions possible Thursday in the central west and southwest Cascades.
Further snow should be seen in the Washington Cascades Thursday night.
Recent and renewed west to southwest winds make wind slab most likely on northwest to southeast aspects on Thursday. Wind slab may build further anywhere there is still snow available for wind transport in wind exposed areas.
New storm slab is also most likely in the Northwest zone due to new snow and the warming trend on Thursday. Storm slab in less likely in the central west and southwest zone but lingering storm slab is possible there.
The 12/17 PWL persistent slab problem still warrants attention in the Cascades and especially in the Mission Ridge area where recent full depth avalanches have occurred. Recent and new loading may make this layer more sensitive to triggering where it is still present. Remember that persistent weak layers are generally involved in larger avalanches. Avoid steeper slopes in areas where you still find this layer in snow pits or especially if you experience direct observations of this layer such as whumpfing or shooting cracks.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
Strong storms around the Solstice deposited generally half to 1 inch of water equivalent along the east slopes. Storm totals generally ranged from 6 - 12 inches.Â
A system Thursday and Friday 12/22-12/23 deposited about 1-5 inches of snow along the east slopes. Â
Scattered snow showers, sunbreaks and generally light winds summed up the weather on Saturday with fair and cold weather seen on Christmas Day and early Monday, before a strong front arrived late Monday.
A strong front and strong west flow aloft was seen over the Olympics and Cascades on Monday and Tuesday. NWAC stations along the crest had strong west winds Monday and Tuesday with .5-1 feet of new snow for the 48 hours ending Wednesday morning with a cooling trend.
Recent Observations
NWAC pro-observer Jeff Ward was in the Icicle Creek area up to about 6300 feet on Wednesday 12/21 and saw evidence of a widespread natural wind slab avalanche cycle during the Solstice storm with one very large crown seen on a north aspect. The December 17th persistent weak layer (PWL) was found at 15-30 cm below the surface on W to N to E slopes. The layer was unreactive both in large column snowpack tests, ski tests and cornice drops.
The NCMG on Friday and Saturday at Washington Pass had some planar hand shears in wind affected snow, but the only instability directly noted was small loose dry avalanches in steep rocky terrain. The 12/17 interface was found to be unreactive in several snowpack tests.Â
NWAC observer Tom Curtis was on DirtyFace Peak near Lake Wenatchee Saturday and found the 12/17 PWL 15-25 cm down, but not propagating in snowpack tests on N-E-SE aspects between 4000-5500 feet. Tom also found shallow and stubborn wind slab in the near treeline band.Â
On Monday the NCMG at Washington Pass reported ski tests and cornice drops did not produce avalanches. Wind slab from around the Solstice seemed stabilized. A new snow surface of near surface facets and surface hoar was noted which would have been buried by the system later Monday and Tuesday.
A report on Turns All Year for Diamond Head at Blewett Pass on Monday indicated shallow snow.
The NCMG was on Delancey Ridge on Wednesday and reported good conditions with low quality shears in the recent snow which were cleaner on sun crusts on SSW slopes.
A different story continues to evolve in the Mission Ridge area. On Wednesday avalanche mitigation produced 1.5 -3 ft hard slab avalanches in 3 separate paths! These avalanches were releasing on basal facets about 15 cm from the ground. On Thursday, snowpits on W-N-E slopes at 6500 feet continued to show hard slab layers giving hard compression test results with moderate quality shears on facets about 15 cm from the ground with about 120 cm (4 ft) of total snow. On Saturday, a backcountry ski tourer in the Lake Clara area near Mission Ridge reported a huge whumpfing noise, likely indicating a collapse of the basal facets. While no avalanche occurred, the terrain where the collapse occurred connected to a large avalanche path that was NE facing near treeline. While deep, persistent slabs in this area are unlikely to trigger it will be best to avoid avalanche terrain in the Mission Ridge area!
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Persistent Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.
The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.
Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1