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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 16th, 2013–Nov 17th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Glacier.

Shallow snow at lower elevations means barely hidden hazards like rocks and stumps are hard to avoid.

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy with flurries and light W winds are expected today. On Sunday, expected continued flurries with up to 8cm through the day. Winds will increase on Sunday, with moderate W'ly winds gusting to strong at ridgetop. Natural avalanches are likely from steep lee slopes when the winds pick up. Precipitation will taper off on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

~25cm of new snow fell yesterday with light SW winds. This unconsolidated snow will have buried windslabs that formed earlier in the week. A surface hoar layer, most prevalent around 1800m, is down ~50cm and collapses easily in tests. Skiers reported cracking in areas with windslabs. Below treeline the snowpack is thin, barely covering hazards.

Avalanche Summary

2 size 2 natural avalanches were observed yesterday off steep N facing paths on Mt Macdonald and running through the alder into the avalanche fans. Suspect more activity with new storm snow overnight, but at least the winds have tapered off for Saturday. On Sunday expect increased avalanche activity from steep lee paths as the winds pick up again.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A series of storms this week dropped about 50cm at treeline. Temps have cooled off now, but cohesive storm slabs formed with warm temps earlier. These overly a buried surface hoar layer and windslabs.
Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong SW winds at ridgetop earlier this week formed windslabs on exposed slopes at treeline and above. Skiers reported cracking around their skis and pockets of windslab that were reactive to ski cuts. These windslabs are now buried.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2