Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 12th, 2014–Apr 13th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Stronger solar inputs will increase avalanche hazard by the afternoon.  Use safe spring travel techniques like traveling early in the day on sun effected terrain before the surface crust breaks down.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud are forecast today with freezing levels rising to 1600 m.  Light to moderate ridge top winds from the north should keep upper elevations cooler.  No precipitation is forecast until Tuesday, as Sunday and Monday remain sunny with a weak temperature inversion in place.

Snowpack Summary

Spring time conditions exists with a surface crust on all but due north aspects above 2000m. Lower temps last night resulted in a good freeze, with valley bottom crusts will break down quickly today. On solar aspects crusts in the upper 50cm are failing in the moderate range in stability tests. The mid to lower snowpack is very well settled.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday at midday a small avalanche cycle occurred during a period of intense precipitation. We observed loose wet avalanches up to size 2.0 on solar aspects and two persistent slab releases up to size 3.0. On Thursday night, we observed an impressive glide crack release on a south aspect east of Rogers Pass that produced a size 3.0 avalanche.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Warm temperatures and solar inputs will deteriorate snow stability today as avalanche hazard rises in the afternoon.  Watch for terrain above you getting headed through out the day and use safe travel techniques to manage your group.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Start and finish early before the surface crusts melt.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

New snow in the past weak is possible to skier-trigger.  Watch for hard, wind-deposited snow on lee features in the alpine.  Storm slabs failing on crusts is possible at lower elevations.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Weak layers buried deeply in the snowpack are still releasing naturally and producing avalanches up to size 3.5.  Warm temperatures and solar inputs elevate this hazard. Large, heavy triggers like cornice falls could trigger a large avalanche.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4