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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2022–Feb 13th, 2022
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Exercise caution as you transition through treeline, especially pushing into terrain that's off the beaten path where the Jan 29 surface hoar may be preserved.

Travel is fast, but skiing is challenging! Wind affect, crusts, and treebombs galore..

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure for the weekend gives mostly sunny skies and warm daytime temps.

Tonight: Clear periods. No Precip. Freezing level (fzl) 800m. Alpine low -2*C. Wind light from the west

Sunday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Fzl 1900m. Wind light-SW

Mon: Isolated flurries (trace of snow). Fzl 1500m. Wind light-SW

Snowpack Summary

Extreme South winds have created widespread wind effect, and scoured exposed slopes back to previous firm surfaces.

Warm temps/rain has created a crust into the alpine on solar aspects, and on all aspects below 1650m.

The Jan 29th SH layer is buried ~50-80cm, is 5-15mm in size depending aspect and elevation, and remains reactive in isolated areas.

Avalanche Summary

There were a few size 2-2.5 avalanches triggered by warming in the highway corridor and in the backcountry on Thursday.

There were near daily reports of skier triggered avalanches this past week, several confirmed to have failed on the Jan 29 Surface Hoar...

The Hourglass

Bonney Moraines - MIN, MIN, MCR, and an additional Sz 1.5 with a partial burial

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

This has become a low probability high consequence problem - triggering remains possible on treeline slopes that were not heavily skied, weren't beaten up by the wind and sun prior to the 29th, or haven't already had an avalanche on this layer.

  • Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.
  • Ski cutting is not an effective way to manage a layer buried this deeply.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Wet

Watch for loose snow avalanches on solar aspects during the heat of the day.

  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Use extra caution on solar slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: South, South West, West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5