Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 12th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.
Kate Ryan,
Exercise caution as you transition through treeline, especially pushing into terrain that's off the beaten path where the Jan 29 surface hoar may be preserved.
Travel is fast, but skiing is challenging! Wind affect, crusts, and treebombs galore..
Summary
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure for the weekend gives mostly sunny skies and warm daytime temps.
Tonight: Clear periods. No Precip. Freezing level (fzl) 800m. Alpine low -2*C. Wind light from the west
Sunday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Fzl 1900m. Wind light-SW
Mon: Isolated flurries (trace of snow). Fzl 1500m. Wind light-SW
Snowpack Summary
Extreme South winds have created widespread wind effect, and scoured exposed slopes back to previous firm surfaces.
Warm temps/rain has created a crust into the alpine on solar aspects, and on all aspects below 1650m.
The Jan 29th SH layer is buried ~50-80cm, is 5-15mm in size depending aspect and elevation, and remains reactive in isolated areas.
Avalanche Summary
There were a few size 2-2.5 avalanches triggered by warming in the highway corridor and in the backcountry on Thursday.
There were near daily reports of skier triggered avalanches this past week, several confirmed to have failed on the Jan 29 Surface Hoar...
The Hourglass
Bonney Moraines - MIN, MIN, MCR, and an additional Sz 1.5 with a partial burial
Confidence
Problems
Persistent Slabs
This has become a low probability high consequence problem - triggering remains possible on treeline slopes that were not heavily skied, weren't beaten up by the wind and sun prior to the 29th, or haven't already had an avalanche on this layer.
- Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.
- Ski cutting is not an effective way to manage a layer buried this deeply.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Watch for loose snow avalanches on solar aspects during the heat of the day.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
- Use extra caution on solar slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
Aspects: South, South West, West.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 13th, 2022 4:00PM
