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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 28th, 2022–Mar 1st, 2022
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

As rain soaks the snowpack to the tops of the north shore mountains, loose wet avalanches will be easily triggerable by skiers. In higher terrain, heavy snow and wind will continue to build touchy storm slabs.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Rain, 10-15 mm, strong southwest wind, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1900 m.

Tuesday: Rain, 10-15 mm, strong southwest wind, treeline high temperature +1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Wednesday: Wet snow mixed with rain, 15-20 mm, moderate southwest wind, treeline high temperature 0 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Thursday: Clearing, light northwest wind, treeline high temperature 0 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs were touchy on Sunday! A widespread natural storm slab avalanche cycle was reported up to size 2. Skier controlled storm slabs were triggering remotely and propagating widely at treeline and below as shown in this MIN report. Storms slab avalanches may gain mass by entraining wet snow, and run surprisingly far.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of new snow from yesterday is becoming soaked by rain. Above 1400 m, snow may begin to accumulate over the rain soaked surface as the freezing level sinks back down. The new snow sits over a variety of weak surfaces including facets, surface hoar and sun crust, to which it appeared to be bonding poorly yesterday. 

50-80 cm below the surface, a 30cm thick crust caps the underlying snowpack which is well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will continue to develop throughout the day where precipitation falls as snow. Storm slabs are especially likely to be triggered in steep or convex terrain and in wind loaded areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

As rain soaks the snowpack at lower elevations, loose wet avalanches will become increasingly likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2