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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2022–Jan 16th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Freezing level on the rise again to 2000 m will continue to weaken the snowpack and cornices that may have become heavy and fragile.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that cornice falls are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions and shifting freezing levels remain until Monday, when the next front approaches bringing light precipitation to the Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, no precipitation, 20-30 km/h northwesterly winds, low treeline temperature +1 C with freezing level rising up to 2000 m.

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy, no precipitation, 20-40 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature +3 C with freezing level around 1900 m.

MONDAY: Rain, accumulation 20-30 mm, 30-50 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature +3 C with freezing level going down to 1500 m.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated wet flurries, accumulation 1-3 cm, 5-10 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level around 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred up to size 3, from the heavy precipitation and rising temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Following the storm, avalanche activity has tappered off on Friday and Saturday.

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to around 2100 m, forming a surface crust as temperatures cool the wet snow. Below this, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts sit that are currently breaking down. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Large cornice falls are dangerous on their own.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

With heavy precipitations and warm temperatures over the last few days, cornices may have become heavy and fragile - take care on and under ridge lines.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3