Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Watch for fresh wind slabs on lee slopes in steep terrain mainly above treeline. Sun breaks can quickly create loose wet avalanche conditions on steep slopes facing the sun. Give cornices a wide safety margin.
Detailed Forecast
An approaching front will move across the Olympics Wednesday night and early Thursday with strengthening southerly winds.
Light to briefly moderate snow and strong winds will likely build fresh wind slabs on lee slopes below ridges, near and especially above treeline by Thursday.Â
Overnight fresh snow may fall on the previous day's melt-freeze crust, which will act as a good sliding surface, especially during sun breaks and daytime warming.
Watch for new wind slabs, mainly on NW-SE slopes above treeline. Keep an eye out for firmer wind transported snow that is a sign of wind slab.
Strong winds and new snow will continue to build and grow recent large cornices. There have been numerous recent cornice failures with some being very large in the WA Cascades. Similar conditions are expected in the Olympics.
Recent cornices are very large and resulting slab avalanches are dangerous and unpredictable. Five people were tragically killed by a cornice release in BC on Saturday. Give cornices a wide berth if traveling along ridge-lines and avoid slopes below large cornices. See a blog post regarding cornices here.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and SnowpackÂ
Heavy rain in mid March has left behind a well consolidated old snowpack with one or more strong melt freeze crusts in the upper snowpack.
The most recent strong storm arrived Friday morning through Saturday morning, 4/8. This storm deposited about a foot of snow at Hurricane Ridge with very strong S winds Friday afternoon, averaging over 40 mph with gusts over 90 mph! This weather would have built large wind slabs on lee slopes below ridges as well as new fresh cornices along ridges.
A calmer, cooler pattern was seen Saturday and Sunday with little new snow. A period of fair weather and sunshine or filtered sun Sunday allowed for more consolidation and some surface snow melt on all but steep shaded slopes in higher terrain. Â
Several weak disturbances have been moving from south to north across the region from Monday through Wednesday. Each depositing about 1-4 inches of snow and accompanied by periods of moderate to strong crest level winds, generally from the SE-SW. The recent shower bands or frontal passages have been building fresh wind slabs, and large cornices daily through the week. Older wind slabs should settle quickly, but be replaced with fresh from the latest passing front. Â
Recent Observations
No recent observations from Hurricane Ridge.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2