Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Snoqualmie Pass.
Avoid steep sun exposed slopes if snow becomes wet in more than the top few inches. Smaller loose wet avalanches usually precede large loose wet avalanches.
Detailed Forecast
Another dry, sunny and warm day is expected Thursday. Freezing levels should be in the 11,000 foot range with light winds. Amazing weather for January.
Loose wet avalanches while unlikely should be the main avalanche problem on Thursday. Remember that areas with shallow snow may become unstable first or may initiate from rocks or vegetation. Avoid steep sun exposed slopes when snow becomes wet in more than the top few inches.
Snowpack Discussion
West of the crest about 5-15 inches of snowfall Sunday was followed by about 3 to 7 inches of rain on Monday with a warming trend especially Monday. Wow!
This produced avalanches west of the crest. The most avalanche observations came from the Baker area. The ski patrol there Monday reported widespread natural avalanches with consistent crown depths of about 2 feet. NWAC observer Jeff Hambleton scouting the aftermath on Tuesday in the Mt Baker area found evidence of widespread loose and slab avalanches. An avalanche class also reported unstable snow Sunday via the NWAC Recent Observations.
And now sunny unseasonably warm weather is being seen in the Olympics and Cascades mid-week. West of the crest this has been causing draining, consolidation, stabiilzing and a resetting of the upper or entire snowpack.
NWAC observer Dallas Glass at Stevens Pass today reported that the snowpack was wet top to bottom with greatly varying snow depth depending on aspect.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 1