Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 30th, 2019 3:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

michael.olsthoorn, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Sheltered areas will provide the best skiing. Avoid thine areas as these are likely spots for triggering an avalanche.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Thursday is forecast to bring mostly cloudy skies with a chance of flurries. Temperatures until the weekend are forecast for daytime highs of -5c and overnight lows of -9c. 70-100km/hr winds out of the SW are also forecast from now until the weekend. The weather models are in agreement that snow is on its way but the timing and amounts are still uncertain. Some models show the snow starting as early as Friday. Stay tune as the weekend approaches!!!!

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed or reported today.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of low density snow overlies mostly a well settled upper snow pack. In sheltered areas, the January 17 surface hoar can be found down 20cm and is on our radar if a slab develops overtop of it. The upper snow pack is sitting on top of 40-60cm of weak basal facets. In higher snow pack areas, there is more bridging with the basal facets and in thinner snow pack areas, the basal facets are more reactive to testing. The bottom line is that the thinner spots can be more easily triggered and if there is a slide on this layer, it will most likely propagate and go to ground.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Respecting shallow areas can't be overstated right now. If this layer fails, it will almost certainly be from a shallow area and the resulting avalanche will likely be very large. Bouldery areas and sparse trees are examples of trouble spots.

Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Isolated pockets of thin wind slabs can be found in the Alpine. Watch for these in the typical lee and cross-loaded features, but be aware of the possibility of "reverse wind-loaded" features due to the persistent NW winds.

Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 31st, 2019 2:00PM