Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 23rd, 2019 3:06PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Even if the skies are cloudy you should avoid slopes that have wet and mushy snow, especially at lower elevations with little overnight re-freeze. Check out this LINK to see how easy it is to trigger a loose wet avalanche.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

We're moving into a weather pattern more in keeping with seasonal norms. Monday night's storm should offer a nice refresh at upper elevations and temperatures should remain cool, at least through Wednesday morning.SATURDAY NIGHT: Light southeast wind, freezing level around 1500 m, no significant precipitation expected. SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, light southeast wind, freezing level holding around 1500 m, no significant precipitation expected.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, light southeast wind, freezing level holding around 1500 m, no significant precipitation expected during the day. The freezing level drops to about 800 m Monday night with 8 to 15 mm of precipitation expected. This will likely start as rain at lower elevations and should produce 10 to 15 cm of snow at and above treeline.TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, clearing through the day, moderate to strong west/southwest wind, freezing level around 800 m, 10 to 15 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Thursday or Friday. Natural activity will likely taper off with cooler temperatures Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces are variable and the heat has likely eliminated any trace of cold snow except on high elevation north features. Melt-freeze conditions (more melt than freeze at lower elevations) exist on all other aspects and elevations. The current surface continues to produce snowballing, surface sluffing and loose wet avalanches.Deeper in the snowpack a layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. There have been no recent reports of avalanches nor activity of this layer in snowpack tests. The recent warm temperatures have probably helped this layer to heal significantly, the one place where it may still be a concern is high elevation north facing terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches may be reactive to human triggers especially on slopes where the snow did not freeze and a wet, weak snowpack exists. Cornices are soft and weak. You don't want to be under or near one of these looming monsters when they fail.

Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on ridges.Avoid slopes that are wet, weak and mushy where you might trigger a wet avalanche.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 24th, 2019 2:00PM