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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2023–Jan 17th, 2023
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, Kananaskis, North 40, Spray - KLakes.

Very little is changing in the snowpack, which unfortunately requires a disciplined approach. Despite the MODERATE hazard rating, conservative terrain selection is still critical due to the deeply buried weak layers.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Nothin new today.

Snowpack Summary

A very thin crust exists just below the snow surface, but thankfully this crust disappears above 2000m. A buried layer of surface hoar down 15 to 30cm at treeline continues to produce shears, but the main concern in the snowpack is the persistent moderate shears failing down 70 to 80cm in the mid-November facets. The lower half of the snowpack remains very weak, and any avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack will likely step down to the lower weaknesses. Thin and rocky areas are of particular concern for triggering the deeper weak layers. Below 2100m the snowpack does not support the weight of a skier if you leave an established skin track.

Weather Summary

Tuesday will be mainly cloudy with the possibility for very light flurries. Temps will reach -6C at ridgetop with light westerly winds. Wednesday looks very similar.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Snowpack tests continue to indicate that human triggering of the deeper weak layers is a real possibility. Shallow rocky areas are particularly susceptible.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

If triggered the persistent slab is very likely to step down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack. Pay close attention at treeline where this layer is more commonly found.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2