Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
An upper level ridge will keep the region fairly dry and sunny. Solar radiation will be strong, and freezing levels could rise as high as 2500 m by Sunday.Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Ridgetop winds moderate from the West. Freezing levels rising to 1800 m.Saturday: Sunny skies. Alpine temperatures rising to 5.0 degrees. Ridgetop winds moderate from the North. Freezing levels rising to 1700 m.Sunday: Sunny. Alpine temperatures high of plus 5-10 degrees. Freezing levels rising to 2400 m then dropping overnight. Ridgetop winds light from the SW
Avalanche Summary
Cornices have started to fail with warmer temperatures and sunny skies up to size 2.5, without pulling deeper slabs on the slopes below. Numerous loose wet avalanches occurred up to size 2 on steeper solar aspects, and one isolated size 3 slab was observed from a distance in the Northern part of the region. Natural avalanche activity will likely spike with periods of solar radiation and warming.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 20 cm of new snow sits above a solid melt freeze crust. The new snow seems to be bonding with help from the warmer temperatures; however, isolated wind slabs likely exist. Surface snow has become moist, especially on southerly aspects forming melt-freeze conditions and surface hoar growth (4 mm) has been noted on shady slopes at higher elevations. Large sagging cornices threaten slopes from above and below.Snowpack tests have been producing hard resistant planar shears on the late March layer and the upper snowpack has strengthened.A couple persistent weak layers exist deeper in the snowpack. The March layer is down 60 - 100cm and the February layer is now deeply buried down 150 â 250 cm. These layers are mostly inactive at this time, but could re-awaken with extended warming, solar influence and large triggers like cornice fall.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Loose Wet
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 4
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 3 - 7