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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 23rd, 2013–Nov 24th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

The forecast is based on limited field data. Please feel free to send your observations to [email protected]

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Sunday: The recent frontal system will slide north through the region bringing mild temperatures and light precipitation. Winds initially light then becoming strong from the southwest by the afternoon. The freezing levels are expected to rise to 1700m.Monday: A break between systems will bring light precipitation and strong southerly winds. Freezing levels could rise to 2500m with a possible inversion;, however, there is some disagreement between models.Outlook for Tuesday: Another warm frontal system approaches the coast bringing light precipitation amounts.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche activity has been reported from the region. This may speak more to the lack of observations rather than actual conditions. If you are out and see recent avalanches, please send your observations to [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

The information coming from this region has been extremely limited and significant spatial variability in snow depths likely exist across the region this time of the year. Reports from the field suggest snow depths of approximately 120cm at treeline in the Shames backcountry area.A recent storm has deposited approximately 20cm of snow at lower elevations and you can expect more snow at higher elevations. Recent moderate to strong southwest winds deposited fresh winds slabs in lee terrain features. The few reports we have received suggest the mid to lower snowpack is reasonably consolidated but keep in mind the snowpack is young, and weaknesses (crusts, surface hoar or facets) may exist.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent strong southwest winds have re-distributed snow into fresh wind slabs. Exact storm snow amounts are uncertain at higher elevations. If you observe 30cm or more of new snow then you can count on the danger rating being higher at treeline.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.>Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Storm Slabs

The storm on November 23 has likely produced a widespread storm slab especially where 30cm or more of new snow exists.  Storm instabilities are typically heightened either during or directly following a storm.
Caution around convexities or sharp changes in terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3