Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Between 5 and 20cm of new snow is expected on on Tuesday. Areas to the south should see the highest accumulations. Winds will be strong and southwesterly with freezing levels at about 1700m. On Wednesday 20cm of wet snow is expected with strong southwest winds and freezing levels hovering at about 2200m. On Thursday, an additional 10-15cm od snow is expected with moderate southwest winds and freezing levels at about 2100m.

Improved visibility on Saturday gave us a better picture of the extent of the avalanche cycle on Thursday and Friday. Most observers reported very widespread activity with numerous slab avalanches up to size 3 from all aspects and at all elevations. The common theme was that many slides showed very wide propagation, and quite a few released on surprisingly low angle slopes (25-35 degrees). More recently, a skier triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche was observed in the north of the region around Birkenhead Lake. Check out the great Mountain Information Network posts that detail the touchy conditions in this area.

This weeks "Pineapple Express Light" brought an average of 60-70 cm of new snow to the region. The snow line may have gone up to ridge top in the south, but only 1400-1600 m in the north. Expect dense new wind and storm slabs, and fresh cornice growth at upper elevations. Heavy loading from snow and rain, and the resulting avalanche cycle, has helped flush-out the mid- and early-January surface hoar/facet layers now down 80-120 cm deep. However, these layers are very much still intact and reactive in places and it may still be possible to trigger large slabs. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallower snowpack areas that may be more faceted.