Avalanche Forecast

Good

Synopsis: A frontal system will slide down the coast on Tuesday with precipitation beginning in the afternoon and continuing through Wednesday. A drying trend is expected on Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge of high pressure redevelops. Tuesday: Increasing cloud with precipitation beginning in the afternoon. Expect 5-10 mm late in the day. The freezing level is around 2000 m. Winds increase to moderate or strong from the southwest in the evening.  Wednesday: Moderate precipitation easing in the late afternoon – 15-25 mm. The freezing level starts at 2000-2500 m and drops to 1500 m by the end of the storm. Winds are strong from the southwest easing in the afternoon. Thursday: Mainly sunny. The freezing level is at 1000 m but solar radiation is strong so temperatures may feel warmer.  

A couple small slab avalanches were triggered from a distance or sympathetically on Monday. These occurred on northwest aspects in the alpine and were 30-40 cm deep. A few size 1 skier controlled avalanches were also reported on Sunday. These events occurred in steep terrain at or above treeline and failed within the storm snow just above the recently buried crust/ moist snow.

Recent snowfall amounts vary significantly within the region from north to south. In the Duffy Lake area and north expect to find 20-25 cm of fresh snow, while Coquihalla and Allison Pass areas have seen 50 cm or more. Moderate or strong south or westerly winds left variable snow distribution in exposed areas near ridgetop with dense wind slabs forming in lee and cross-loaded features. The new snow is sitting on moist snow or a melt-freeze crust depending on elevation. Weaknesses exist within the storm snow and the bond between the new snow and crust is questionable. Expect a new surface crust to form on solar aspects and lower elevations as temperatures drop overnight. Cornices are very large and could pop off with continued mild temperatures.