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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2020–Feb 15th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Convective flurries gave us a few new CM of snow over the past 24hrs. Cracking along lee features such as ridge-lines and cross-loaded bowls indicates that the recent windslabs are still within the range of being triggered by a skier. Give them time to stabilize. 

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Temperatures for Saturday are forecast to be around -10C with continued light flurries. Winds are forecast to continue out of the NW into the moderate range. If we are lucky, we may see 5-10cm over the next few days. 

Avalanche Summary

Some loose dry slides up to sz 1 from steep unskiable terrain. One new slab (sz 2) on a E aspects at 2700m on Mt Shark was also observed that was likely triggerred by a cornice collapse.  

Snowpack Summary

Convective flurries gave us 5cm or so over the past 24hrs and up to 10cm in some areas. Windslabs are being found in alpine areas up to 40cm thick and in lee and crossloaded terrain. Cracking has been observed in the upper snowpack in steeper and unsupported terrain indicating that the windlslabs are within the range of human triggerrring. The bottom 10-20cm of the snowpack is still weak depth hoar that can be triggerred from thin areas so choose routes that avoid steep thin and variable snowpack areas. 

Terrain and Travel

  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Variable winds have made new slabs on all aspects. West aspects have a more crossloaded look, while the east have a traditional lee loading pattern. These slabs are easy to spot in the alpine and more isolated at treeline. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Cornices

These will likely trigger slabs below the ridges and possibly trigger the deeper layers. If this happens, expect a very large avalanche. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The weak basal layers are still a concern. An avalanche that occurred in the past 24 hours was a slide that stepped down to the basal layers and involved the entire snowpack. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5