Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 14th, 2020 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs, Cornices and Deep Persistent Slabs.
mkoppang,
Avalanche Canada
Convective flurries gave us a few new CM of snow over the past 24hrs. Cracking along lee features such as ridge-lines and cross-loaded bowls indicates that the recent windslabs are still within the range of being triggered by a skier. Give them time to stabilize.
Summary
Confidence
Weather Forecast
Temperatures for Saturday are forecast to be around -10C with continued light flurries. Winds are forecast to continue out of the NW into the moderate range. If we are lucky, we may see 5-10cm over the next few days.
Avalanche Summary
Some loose dry slides up to sz 1 from steep unskiable terrain. One new slab (sz 2) on a E aspects at 2700m on Mt Shark was also observed that was likely triggerred by a cornice collapse.
Snowpack Summary
Convective flurries gave us 5cm or so over the past 24hrs and up to 10cm in some areas. Windslabs are being found in alpine areas up to 40cm thick and in lee and crossloaded terrain. Cracking has been observed in the upper snowpack in steeper and unsupported terrain indicating that the windlslabs are within the range of human triggerrring. The bottom 10-20cm of the snowpack is still weak depth hoar that can be triggerred from thin areas so choose routes that avoid steep thin and variable snowpack areas.
Terrain and Travel
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Variable winds have made new slabs on all aspects. West aspects have a more crossloaded look, while the east have a traditional lee loading pattern. These slabs are easy to spot in the alpine and more isolated at treeline.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
These will likely trigger slabs below the ridges and possibly trigger the deeper layers. If this happens, expect a very large avalanche.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
The weak basal layers are still a concern. An avalanche that occurred in the past 24 hours was a slide that stepped down to the basal layers and involved the entire snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 15th, 2020 4:00PM
