Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Northwest Inland.
Be on alert for newly formed wind slabs if you're braving the cold on Monday.
Confidence
High -
Weather Forecast
Sunday night: Clear. Moderate to strong northeast winds, decreasing.
Monday: Sunny. Light to moderate east winds. Alpine temperatures around -27.
Tuesday: Sunny. Moderate east winds. Alpine temperatures around -28.
Wednesday: Sunny. Moderate east winds, increasing over the day. Alpine temperatures around -27.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from the region are limited, however widespread avalanche cycles occurred over the past weekend and again on Friday as a result of rapid loading during each storm. A MIN report detailing activity on Friday describes numerous 30 cm-deep storm slabs releasing from 35+ degree slopes and reaching size 2.5 (large) in many parts of the region.Â
Before the last storm, reports of persistent slab avalanches associated with buried surface hoar were trickling in, from Ashman, Houston Telkwas, and the Howsons. They included natural and artificially triggered avalanches ranging in size from 1.5-3, and activity was noted on all aspects, mainly at treeline. Loading from recent snowfall has increased the size and consequences of avalanches that may occur on these layers.
Looking forward, wind-redistributed snow from the recent storm will remain our primary concern. Under forecast cool temperatures the new snow may continue to react to human triggers as dry loose sluffs. Greater danger should be expected in areas where winds have redistributed snow into deeper and more reactive slabs.Â
Snowpack Summary
About 30 cm of new snow accumulated in the region on Friday. In many areas this recent snow is expected to be heavily wind-affected by recent outflow winds. This snow mainly buried wind-affected surfaces at alpine and upper treeline elevations, but it may cover a new layer of surface hoar at sheltered lower elevations or a thin sun crust on steeper south-facing slopes.
Below the new snow interface, 40-60 cm of older, wind-affected storm snow is expected to be forming a good bond with the interface below it.
A concerning pair of surface hoar layers are currently buried about 80-120 cm below the surface in sheltered areas around treeline. There is uncertainty about where this layer remains a problem, but reports of avalanche activity on these layers before the last storm suggest they may be active. The new load delivered by Friday's storm increased this potential.
Terrain and Travel
- Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
- Keep your guard up at lower elevations. Wind slab formation has been extensive.
- Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Recent snow accumulations may react as dry loose sluffs in sheltered areas, but deeper, more reactive slabs should be expected in wind-affected areas. A more recent shift to northeast winds means slabs may now be found on a wide range of aspects. Cold, dense air flowing out of valleys is expected to extend this problem to lower elevations.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Two weak layers of surface hoar are now buried about 80-120 cm deep in parts of the region. There is uncertainty about both the distribution of these layers as well as how they have reacted to the recent load of storm snow. Human triggering one of these weak layers may be possible around steep, sheltered openings near treeline.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5