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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 3rd, 2012–Dec 4th, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Limited field observations and reports exist from this region. Conditions may be variable. It is important to be familiar with the snowpack and avalanche problems that may exist in your local mountains.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Weather Forecast

A broad upper trough remains just offshore while a cooler, unstable onshore westerly flow has strengthened.  A multitude of systems will bring light –moderate precipitation, and strong SW winds. The region returns to normal seasonal temperatures, as the arctic air retreats.Tuesday: Freezing levels near 500 m, snow amounts 10-20 cm, ridgetop winds SW 50-70 km/hr, alpine temps -10.Wednesday: Freezing levels near 500 m, snow amounts 2-5 cm, ridgetop winds W 30 km/hr, alpin temps -10.Thursday: Freezing levels at the surface, snow amounts 5-10 cm, ridgetop winds SW 20 km/hr, alpine temps -11.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports of several loose, dry sluffs size 1.5 from steep, rocky terrain features running mid-path on Northerly aspects. For a bit more information in the Hankin Area, check out the Regional Forum Posts.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slab instabilities exist in the upper snowpack at treeline and in the alpine. They may be touchy to rider triggers; especially on leeward slopes and behind terrain features where pockets of wind slab easily build. At treeline depths in the southern part of the region range between 90-125 cm, but highly variable in the alpine with deep wind drifts and scoured slopes in exposed areas. Recent snowpack tests on a SE aspect around 1400m  showed CTH (resistant "pop") on an old facet layer 55 cm down, and a rutschblock score of 5. Generally, the mid-pack is gaining strength and possibly even bridging the persistent weakness below.Digging down deeper is the early November facet/crust persistent layer. This crust sits near the base of the snowpack down 80-130 cm. Test results on this layer earlier this week produced hard results ("drops"). I have no current observations to suggest the snow above or below this interface is gaining strength, or weakening. In most areas, because this weakness is located near the ground, any associated avalanche activity will likely be limited to slopes with smooth ground cover.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New storm slabs and wind slabs have formed; especially on lee slopes, gully features, and behind ridges. Natural avalanche activity is likely with continued loading. Rider triggering is likely, especially on steep convex slopes.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Basal facet/crust weaknesses are often prone to remote triggering and step down avalanches. Typical trigger points include thin rocky areas. They may be difficult to trigger, but deep persistent slab avalanches are often very large.
Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6