Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 6th, 2021–Feb 7th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Persistent slab avalanches can be difficult to predict, so a conservative approach is recommended. 

Storm slabs may still be easy to trigger, especially in wind loaded areas. Watch for a change in wind loading patterns with northerly winds.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / moderate northwest wind / alpine low temperature near -17 

SUNDAY - Sunny with cloudy periods / moderate to strong northwest wind / alpine high temperature near -16

MONDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -20

TUESDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light east wind / alpine high temperature near -26

Avalanche Summary

There have been no new avalanches reported in the region for a few days, however, observations are limited. If you get out this weekend, please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network!

On Thursday a MIN report from the Seaton South Ridge about a size 1 wind slab on a north aspect at treeline. The report said that the bed surface had a few cm's of soft snow, possibly surface hoar, above a somewhat icy crust. The slab was small but ran fast on the bed surface. 

Once the new low-density storm snow becomes more consolidated and forms a slab, the likelihood of avalanches may increase.

 

Snowpack Summary

25-50 cm of recent, low-density storm snow from the past week sits on a persistent weak layer. This layer consists of surface hoar in locations sheltered from the wind at all elevations, facets, and stiff wind affected snow. On solar aspects, a buried sun crust can be found and a thick crust exists near the surface below 1000 m. 

The lower snowpack has two decomposing crust layers. The upper crust is 70-140 cm deep and continues to show occasional hard, sudden results in snow pits. 

The deeper crust at the bottom of the snowpack is more prevalent in shallow snowpack ranges. These deep persistent layers seem to be dormant under the current conditions, but shallow rocky slopes should still be carefully assessed and approached with caution. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Watch your sluff: it may run faster and further than you expect.
  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

10-25 cm of new, low-density storm snow has slowly accumulated over the past few days. Changing wind directions may deposit deeper and stiffer slabs on multiple aspects. Anywhere the new snow feels stiff and more cohesive may be more reactive, especially where it sits above a buried weak layer. 

Loose-dry avalanches may be seen from steeper slopes where there is little cohesion in the recent storm snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

30-60 cm sits above a persistent weak layer that consists of surface hoar, facets, and/ or a crust. As the new snow becomes more consolidated, the likelihood of avalanches may increase.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5