Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Reactive slabs are expected above the snow-rain line and loose wet avalanches may occur below. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended anywhere you find 30+ cm of new snow.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 1300 m.
MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 40 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1400 m.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow switching to rain, accumulation 50 to 80 mm, 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature 1 C, freezing level rising to 2000 m.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 20 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
Small loose dry activity was reported on the North Shore on Friday, where dry snow overlay a melt-freeze crust.
Avalanche activity is expected to spike on Sunday night into Monday during and after the storm, with loose wet activity below the snow-rain line and storm and wind slab activity above.
Snowpack Summary
Around 40 to 70 mm of precipitation is forecast to accumulate Sunday night into Monday, with it falling as snow above around 1400 m and rain below. Above the snow-rain line, storm and wind slabs are expected to rapidly form and be reactive to riders. Below the snow-rain line, wet loose avalanches could be triggered by riders in steep terrain.
The remainder of the snowpack is well-consolidated.
Terrain and Travel
- Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
- Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Snow accumulation above the snow-rain line will likely be reactive to riders on Monday. Slabs will be thickest in lee terrain features, as the snow will fall with strong southwest wind. Best to avoid avalanche terrain if you find more than 30 cm of snow accumulation.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Rain will soak the snowpack below the snow-rain line. Riders could trigger the wet snow, with the highest consequence being in very steep and confining terrain features or above a cliff.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5