Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Keep a close eye on freezing levels.
A rain on snow event could put us into another destructive cycle at lower elevations, alongside a winter storm cycle up high.
Weather Forecast
A cycle of storms approaching the coast are making their way inland. Expect mostly flurries at higher elevations with gusty SW winds and showers at lower elevations. We could see 15cm tomorrow and 20cm on Monday at higher elevations, with rain below treeline. Freezing levels are currently forecast around 1600m but there is uncertainty in the models
Snowpack Summary
20-40cm of new snow fell at Treeline and above in the last 48hrs (drainage dependant) burying a variety of surfaces including wind slabs, solar crusts to mountain top, and a melt/freeze crust to 2200m. Northerly slopes in the Alpine hold cold, wintery snow. The December 1st crust is down 1.5-2m. Late season cornices are LARGE!
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches observed since Wednesday with the cooler temps. The widespread natural avalanche cycle from Mon/Tues was driven primarily by strong solar input and rain, especially at lower elevations. Wet slabs, deep persistent slabs, glides, and loose wets were gouging to ground, breaking trees, and running full path.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Up to 40cm of storm snow overlies a hard crust at treeline elevations and above, with more on the way! More snow has fallen on the west end of the park than in the east.
- Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.
- Watch for signs of instability such as recent avalanche activity, and whumpfing/cracking underfoot.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Cornices
House-sized cornices are perched along ridge crests throughout the area. With warming temps, these beasts lose strength and can fail naturally or with human loads. Give them a wide berth; they can pull back across the ridge when they drop.
- If traveling on ridge lines, give cornices a wide berth; they have been especially active this week!
- Avoid travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Loose Wet
The likelihood of wet, loose avalanches increases with daytime warming, especially if it rains. The heavy, wet mass of these avalanches has the potential to trigger deep persistent wet slabs.
- Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
- Daytime warming/rain will weaken surface layers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2