Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
The avalanche danger should lower slightly on Sunday due to a slight cooling trend, but still remain Moderate. Larger avalanches caused by glide releases or cornice fall are possible in isolated areas. Get off steep slopes early in the day and be aware of the overhead hazard to minimize your exposure.
Detailed Forecast
A shift to onshore flow will maintain fair and mild conditions Sunday, but slightly cooler than the previous several days. Winds should remain light Sunday with some night and morning low level clouds possible in the valleys.  Freezing levels and temperatures should remain near 10,000 feet Sunday. Stay aware of the overhead hazard to minimize your exposure.Â
Surface crusts should form overnight through the early morning hours followed by gradual melting and weakening. Pay attention to the integrity of surface crusts formed overnight. Loose wet avalanches will be possible on any steeper slope due to warming Sunday. Backcountry travel early in the day is encouraged since conditions can change rapidly due to daytime warming. Watch for wet snow deeper than your boot tops, especially on steep solar slopes during the late morning to afternoon hours.
The potential for cornice releases will continue on Sunday. Cornice releases can be unpredictable during the spring so avoid areas below cornices and remember that cornices can break much further back than expected along ridges.
Although not listed as an avalanche problem, large, powerful glide avalanches can release unexpectedly so avoid areas below steep unsupported slopes or rock faces.
Avalanche activity on Sunday should be less extensive as during the very warm weather last week which more closely followed a period of heavier snowfall and caused consolidation and some stabilizing. Continue to evaluate avalanche conditions on specific terrain features and change your plans if snow conditions are more dangerous than expected.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
An upper ridge has dominated the weather pattern since Wednesday, causing sunny days and very warm temperatures, including high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s at Hurricane Ridge on Thursday and Friday!  After a stormy March, the snowpack has undergone significant settlement and multiple melt-freeze cycles over the last two weeks. This has allowed melt water to drain well from the upper snowpack and consolidate.
The mid and lower snowpack in the Olympics should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.
Recent Observations
During the warm stretch last week, 1 large glide avalanche (R3-D3) naturally released on the 20th of June slide path (easterly aspect, near treeline) to the ground. According to NPS rangers, the avalanche likely released on Wednesday 3/30 or Thursday 3/31.
NWAC pro-observer, Matt Schonwald toured extensively in the Hurricane Ridge area Saturday, 4/2 and found a well settled and seasonally deep snowpack with very few avalanche concerns. Â
Only shallow amounts of recent snow were received Monday through early Tuesday at Hurricane Ridge. The snowpack has been undergoing stabilizing melt-freeze cycles over the past several days equating to typical spring melt-freeze conditions.Â
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1