Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Large, unpredictable natural avalanches are still possible.
Avoid areas with overhead hazard, especially solar aspects.
Avoid steep slopes if the snow is moist or slushy.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Large wet slab, natural avalanches continue on all aspects. With several natural avalanches size 3-3.5 observed on Tuesday.
A field team investigated an avalanche from March 18th, on a N aspect at treeline. This size 3, natural avalanche failed down ~120 cm on the Feb 3rd persistent weak layer.
A notable size 4 from the West Face of Mt. Cheops on Friday. These avalanches were failing within the moist upper snowpack and stepping down to the persistent weak layer (over 1m deep).
Snowpack Summary
New snow will start to bury a crust on all aspects and elevations, except alpine polar slopes.
The March 8th interface, which is a crust on steep, solar terrain and preserved stellars elsewhere is down ~40cm and reactive in snowpack tests
80-140cm of settled snow sits above a sugary facet layer. These facets are poorly bonded to the widespread, firm crust from Feb 3rd. This is a significant persistent weak layer and will be a concern for the foreseeable future.
Weather Summary
A approaching cold front, will bring cooler temperature and light to moderate snow.
Tonight: Cloudy, Alp Low: -2, Light SW winds, Fz Lvl: 800 m
Wed: Flurries, 10-15 cm, Alp High: -1, Light W winds, Fz Lvl: 1900 m
Thurs: Snow, 15-20 cm, Alp High: -9, Light gusting to Mod W winds, Fz Lvl: 1600 m
Fri: Cloudy, Alp High: -6, Light E winds, Fz Lvl: 1200m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid areas with overhead hazard, especially solar aspects.
- Remember that in the spring strong solar radiation and warm temperatures can weaken the snow in a matter of minutes.
- Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
- Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Loose wet avalanches remain a concern on solar aspects during the peak of day time heating. Avoid steep slopes if the snow becomes slushy. Signs of instability for this problem include pinwheeling and snowballing.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
The Feb 3rd crust/facet complex is down 80-140cm and has been the main sliding layer for the most recent large avalanches. As temperatures gradually drop, this layer will become harder to trigger, but should remain as a concern in your decision making.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5