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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2017–Jan 19th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cascades - East.

The snowpack in the Olympics and Cascades is undergoing a lot of change and there is less than the usual certainty in which avalanche problems and danger levels to indicate. It might be a good plan to wait until Friday when conditions are better known and should be more stable.

Detailed Forecast

Winds and snow showers will decrease Wednesday night and Thursday with cooler temperatures.

The heavier storm snow should be seen in the northeast zone with lighter amounts elsewhere east of the crest.

The greatest likelihood of new wind slab should be at higher elevations where storm snowfall is heaviest. Underlying crusts may make may make wind slab sensitive on some slopes.

New storm slab will be most likely in any areas that experience rapidly accumulating snow of more than an inch an hour for several hours. Underlying crusts may make may make storm slab sensitive as well on some slopes.

The 12/17 PWL and other persistent weak layers closer to the surface have been unreactive lately in the northeast zone and PWL's have been removed from that zone. If these layers does not snow reactivity in the central east and southeast zones soon they will be removed from those areas as well.

The snowpack in the Olympics and Cascades is undergoing a lot of change and there is less than the usual certainty in which avalanche problems and danger levels to indicate. It might be a good plan to wait until Friday when conditions are better known and should be more stable.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

An Arctic air mass was over the Northwest with fair, cold weather last week. Surface hoar and near surface faceted crystals probably formed in most areas during that period.

A drastic change was seen when an atmospheric river moved to the Northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. This caused heavy snow in the northeast. Rain was seen up to about 5-6000 feet in the central east and southeast with snow at higher elevations. Sleet or freezing rain was also probably seen in some lower elevation areas east of the crest.

Observations the next couple days should help determine to what extent any of the surface hoar and near surface faceted crystals from the fair cold weather might have survived the atmospheric river event.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Tom Curtis was out on Friday on Mt Cashmere and on a W aspect near treeline and he found the 12/17 PWL at 55 cm giving a PST 37/100 End. He noted some previous wind transport and cross loading on N-W-S aspects. Tom also found great skiing conditions in the trees. 

An observation via the NWAC observation page from Saturday continued to identify weak persistent grains near the base of the relatively shallow snowpack in the Mission Ridge area. While these layers were reactive in column tests, no recent avalanche activity has been observed involving these layers.

The NCMG were in the Cutthroat area near Washington Pass on Monday and reported unreactive hand shear test and unreactive wind slab.

The Mission Ridge pro-patrol on Wednesday morning reported that building new wind and storm slab was still shallow and not yet reactive. The 12/17 PWL at about 75 cm down is not reactive or is giving hard lower quality tests.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Persistent Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.

 

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

 

This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.

Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1 - 1