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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 11th, 2015–Dec 12th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Don't be surprised by a touchy surface hoar layer that becomes more reactive at lower elevations. This layer has been triggered by skiers and riders. Be suspicious of open areas below ~1700m and increasingly cautious as you get lower in your run.

Weather Forecast

We are in between weather systems today, with the next storm arriving late Saturday. Today expect a few flurries, with possibly a few sunny breaks this afternoon. Temps will be mild at and below treeline and around -10 in the alpine with light winds. Late Saturday snow and strong winds will bring 5-10cm of snow by Sunday morning.

Snowpack Summary

At treeline, 1m of new snow over the past week is settling and overlies a variety of surfaces. At treeline and below it sits on a surface hoar layer. The surface hoar layer is biggest and very reactive below ~1600m. On solar aspects it sits on a sun crust and may bond poorly. Surface hoar layers down ~1.5m are still reactive but harder to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday numerous size 2 natural avalanches were observed in steep avalanche paths, likely triggered by windloading. On Wednesday, there were reports of the Dec 2 surface hoar being remotely and skier triggered producing up to size 2 avalanches at ~1500m. At treeline and above, pockets of soft windslab have been easily triggered.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A 50-100cm thick slab overlies touchy surface hoar below treeline, and sun crust in the alpine. The surface hoar layer becomes more reactive at lower elevations, and where it exists the storm slab will be easy to trigger.
Ski short pitches and regroup in safe spots.Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

With ~1m of new snow available for transport, strong S winds have formed wind slabs on N aspects in the alpine and tree-line. These pockets of windslab have been reported to be reactive to triggering.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3